trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 | Over | 93¢ | 92¢ | $14 | $14 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $11 | $12 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? | Jun 06 | $1,863 | +$2 | +0% |
| Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5) | Jun 06 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Exact Score: Girona FC 1 - 0 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? | Jun 06 | $18 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on March 28? | Mar 30 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Spurs vs. Bucks | Mar 30 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Mar 30 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Marc | Mar 30 | $175 | −$175 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | Mar 29 | $914 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Mar 29 | $1,084 | +$60 | +6% |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Mar 29 | $936 | $0 | +0% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Mar 28 | $899 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $53 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial | Mar 28 | $855 | +$6 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con | Mar 28 | $845 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | Mar 28 | $885 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | Mar 28 | $926 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t | Mar 28 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Mar 28 | $70 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? | Mar 28 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $913 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | Mar 28 | $103 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Lee Zeldin be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Mar 28 | $946 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Mar 28 | $879 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? | Mar 28 | $929 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jerse | Mar 28 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Mar 28 | $904 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 28 | $887 | +$4 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +5.3% | -4.7% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 27 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 63% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 27 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 63% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -33.7% |