Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
97 0x97ab…b633 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$742 (+46%) realized +$746 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$779
crypto 15% $0
sports 7% −$40
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 22% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 22% +34.5%
10% -20.1% 22% +21.6%
15% -27.8% 22% +9.9%
20% -34.9% 22% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +49% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$68 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.44 per $1 lost it wins $6.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$746
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage242d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 46¢ $59 $56 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jan 01 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Dec 20 $34 +$33 +96%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? Nov 07 $1,032 +$846 +82%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? Oct 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $84 33d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $84 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $84 156d
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $73 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $72 188d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $34 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $1 219d
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? BUY No 55¢ $1,032 232d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? BUY Yes 36¢ $63 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.88 · official $78.88 (match) · 19 history records