Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97ab…8fbf crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$2
finance 11% $0
other 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 14 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage234d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 29 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 10 $864 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 54d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 93d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 115d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $90 115d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $56 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 141d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 184d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 184d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 184d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 223d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 100¢ $864 234d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $57 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.15 · official $88.15 (match) · 31 history records