Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x97b2…1c44 crypto 1054 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$625 (+4%) realized +$943 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%497W / 557L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days−$276
14 days+$13
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$407
crypto 33% +$35
other 4% +$518
culture 0% −$9
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -48.9% -53.7% 25% 25% -41.7%
≤30d 92 +7.7% -2.6% 45% 45% -4.6%
≤90d 1054 +1.4% -8.2% 47% 42% -3.9%
all 1054 +1.4% -8.2% 47% 42% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 42% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 39% -13.1%
15% -25.0% 21% -21.5%
20% -32.4% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$943
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses497 / 557
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1054 / 1054
History coverage83d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1054 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Deportes Temuco vs. Curico Unido: O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$50 +100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $47 +$53 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +113%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Deportes Temuco vs. Curico Unido: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $25 +$140 +567%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $38 +$62 +163%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $50 +$50 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $24 +$37 +152%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $17 +$17 +100%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $44 +$106 +245%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +100%
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5 May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 0.5 May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pri May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $50 +$50 +100%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $50 +$50 +100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 May 25 $76 +$76 +100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $29 +$93 +318%
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5 May 24 $45 +$45 +100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 23 $9 +$12 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $47 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 5d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 5d
Deportes Temuco vs. Curico Unido: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $34 6d
Deportes Temuco vs. Curico Unido: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 6d
Deportes Temuco vs. Curico Unido: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 6d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 6d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $2 8d
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $34 9d
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 9d
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 9d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 13¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records