Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b2…7a1d crypto 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$496 (-10%) realized −$468 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%85W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$770
14 days−$941
30 days−$941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$719
sports 3% −$140
other 2% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 48% -26.4%
≤30d 170 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 46% -28.2%
≤90d 170 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 46% -28.2%
all 170 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 46% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 46% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 42% -35.0%
15% -39.1% 21% -41.3%
20% -45.1% 16% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses85 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage8d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 38¢ 8¢ $36 $8 −$28 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$16 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$32 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$64 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $188 +$36 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$4 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$26 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $259 +$227 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $238 −$230 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$13 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$7 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$21 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$28 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$20 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$26 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $44 −$31 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$29 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $17 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $78 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $38 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $70 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $37 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $17 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $17 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $38 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $129 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $95 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $84 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $38 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $53 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $38 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 21¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 92¢ $487 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.05 · official $33.63 · 465 history records