Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

97 0x97b3…a959 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized −$16 · open +$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day24.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-51.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	17%	17%	-3.6%
≤30d	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	17%	17%	-3.6%
≤90d	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	17%	17%	-3.6%
all	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	17%	17%	-3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover24.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-51.1%	17%	-3.6%
10% ← realistic here	-55.8%	17%	-12.8%
15%	-60.1%	17%	-21.2%
20%	-64.0%	17%	-28.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$10 · ×5.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$153

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$24

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions10

Markets (closed)6 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day24.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Over	54¢	78¢	$30	$43	+$13 (+44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$19	$19	+$1 (+3%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	Over	38¢	66¢	$10	$17	+$7 (+72%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$16	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	15¢	$14	$15	+$1 (+7%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5	Under	55¢	66¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+21%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	22¢	20¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$42	+$58	+139%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada?	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$34	−$33	-98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$7	−$1	-15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$30	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$10	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY	51¢	$15	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5	BUY Under	55¢	$10	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$42	9h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1	BUY	16¢	$10	18h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	29¢	$9	19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5	SELL Under	53¢	$21	19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$19	19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$14	19h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$6	19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$16	20h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$16	20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5	BUY Under	54¢	$22	20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	58¢	$6	20h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$27	20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$7	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.83 · official $178.05 · 24 history records