Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b3…4a85 sports 497 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized +$69 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%227W / 239L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$150
14 days−$396
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1,300
other 37% −$1,466
world 1% +$10
crypto 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -22.8% -30.1% 42% 42% -13.4%
≤30d 81 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 46% -5.1%
≤90d 360 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 47% -14.6%
all 466 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 48% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 48% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 47% -18.2%
15% -28.5% 46% -26.1%
20% -35.5% 41% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$92 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,987
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses227 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions31
Markets (closed)466 / 497
History coverage107d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $343 $347 +$3 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $290 $280 −$10 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $254 $250 −$4 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $98 $111 +$13 (+13%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 55¢ $114 $109 −$5 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $106 $104 −$2 (-2%)
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $90 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 28¢ 28¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 32¢ $82 $38 −$44 (-54%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $42 $33 −$9 (-22%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $40 $32 −$7 (-18%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $46 $31 −$14 (-32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 42¢ $27 $17 −$10 (-37%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $14 −$22 (-61%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $112 +$58 +52%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -11%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $7 +$7 +100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $116 +$148 +127%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $340 +$160 +47%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $110 +$70 +64%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$14 +27%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 +$48 +92%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $78 +$32 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $136 +$164 +121%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $495 +$435 +88%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $235 −$137 -58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $288 +$112 +39%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $397 −$397 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $34 +$8 +23%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 +$13 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $174 −$174 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $3 +$4 +134%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $57 −$57 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $77 +$73 +94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $54 −$6 -11%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 +$50 +101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $15 57m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $82 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $172 2h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 28¢ $64 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $348 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $112 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 12h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $18 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 15h
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $91 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $28 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $340 20h
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $30 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $14 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $44 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $50 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $114 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,986.68 · official $1,986.71 (match) · 2669 history records