Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b4…9c7a other 46 markets active 1d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-15%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$13
sports 30% +$6
world 11% −$7
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.9% -15.8% 37% 37% -17.5%
≤30d 46 -8.2% -16.9% 37% 37% -22.4%
≤90d 46 -8.2% -16.9% 37% 37% -22.4%
all 46 -8.2% -16.9% 37% 37% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 37% -22.4%
10% -24.9% 33% -29.9%
15% -32.1% 30% -36.6%
20% -38.8% 28% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -72%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +199%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +219%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +408%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 33h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 47¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records