Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b4…4d2c crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$42 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 49% -7.9%
≤30d 39 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 49% -7.9%
≤90d 39 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 49% -7.9%
all 39 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 49% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 49% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 33% -16.7%
15% -31.1% 26% -24.8%
20% -37.9% 18% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 61¢ 98¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+60%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 12¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $58 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $76 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$16 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $33 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $46.39 · 108 history records