Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b4…f690 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
politics 26% $0
other 13% −$6
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 30 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage261d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Oct 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 17 $16 −$6 -40%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 14 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $44 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records