Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97ba…6783 crypto 556 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate48%265W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day85.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$161
14 days−$185
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 14% -13.5%
≤30d 467 -2.0% -11.4% 47% 22% -14.2%
≤90d 555 -1.8% -11.2% 48% 19% -13.9%
all 555 -1.8% -11.2% 48% 19% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 19% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 13% -22.2%
15% -27.4% 8% -29.7%
20% -34.5% 6% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses265 / 290
Open positions1
Markets (closed)555 / 556
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day85.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 71¢ 46¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 36¢ 54¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $124 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $86 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $123 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $113 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $121 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $164 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $117 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $134 −$19 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $111 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$12 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.30 · official $24.70 (match) · 3500 history records