Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x97bd…ae7d crypto 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$526 (+1%) realized +$640 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate91%409W / 40L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$6
14 days+$119
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 97% 15% -9.3%
≤30d 315 +2.5% -7.3% 89% 24% -10.3%
≤90d 440 +2.6% -7.2% 91% 20% -9.3%
all 449 +2.7% -7.1% 91% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 20% -9.2%
10% -16.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -24.1% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.5% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$103 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$640
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses409 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)449 / 450
History coverage93d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Down 94¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$126 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$5 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$9 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$12 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $44 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $54 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $68 +$4 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $35 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $56 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $77 −$27 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $38 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$39 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $43 −$41 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $115 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $129 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $150 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $155 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $204 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $161 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $57 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $57 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $54 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $61 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $59 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $52 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $54 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $56 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $52 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $54 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 87¢ $67 6d
Solana Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 85¢ $39 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $46 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $59 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 921 history records