Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
97 0x97be…2b5f crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+4%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$119
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$56
other 16% −$70
sports 7% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +6.7% -3.5% 66% 46% -2.4%
≤30d 45 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 38% -8.1%
≤90d 45 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 38% -8.1%
all 48 -4.7% -13.7% 58% 42% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 42% -7.9%
10% -22.0% 27% -16.7%
15% -29.5% 21% -24.8%
20% -36.4% 21% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage275d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 45¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$41 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $92 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$21 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$11 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$54 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +133%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$9 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $3 +$3 +115%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Dec 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? Sep 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $66 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $30 37h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $85 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.09 · official $150.09 (match) · 127 history records