Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97c3…d8f0 weather 178 markets active 5d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$203 (-3%) realized −$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate63%112W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$220
14 days−$312
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$276
crypto 4% +$45
sports 2% −$45
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.9% -30.2% 20% 0% -34.2%
≤30d 62 -8.9% -17.6% 68% 21% -12.1%
≤90d 178 -11.0% -19.5% 63% 28% -12.8%
all 178 -11.0% -19.5% 63% 28% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 28% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 8% -21.2%
15% -34.2% 2% -28.8%
20% -40.7% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses112 / 66
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage37d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $109 −$29 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $109 −$51 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $397 −$139 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $163 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $153 +$43 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $89 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $91 +$32 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $64 +$20 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $126 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $73 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $78 −$76 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $43 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 05 $174 −$164 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $318 +$22 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 03 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $283 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $190 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 2? Jun 01 $45 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $112 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $391 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 31? Jun 01 $165 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 31? May 31 $197 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $460 +$35 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 29? May 29 $139 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 30? May 29 $64 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29? May 29 $398 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28? May 29 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27? May 28 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 27? May 27 $276 +$22 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $474 +$51 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 56¢ $48 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $51 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 17¢ $36 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 64¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 63¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 66¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 66¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 69¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 71¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 63¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 76¢ $106 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 53¢ $74 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 56¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1460 history records