Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97c4…40c5 crypto 106 markets active 21h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+5%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 31L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$27
14 days−$10
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.0% -5.0% 73% 55% -6.0%
≤30d 105 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 63% -6.4%
≤90d 106 +3.7% -6.2% 71% 62% -6.6%
all 106 +3.7% -6.2% 71% 62% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 62% -6.6%
10% -15.1% 49% -15.5%
15% -23.3% 36% -23.7%
20% -30.9% 25% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage30d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$37 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records