Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97c9…95c4 crypto 1000 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (309 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$557 (-8%) realized −$557 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%575W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day308.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$584
14 days−$282
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (309 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 814 -38.6% -44.4% 48% 44% -19.1%
≤30d 1000 -26.7% -33.7% 58% 54% -13.3%
≤90d 1000 -26.7% -33.7% 58% 54% -13.3%
all 1000 -26.7% -33.7% 58% 54% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover308.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 54% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.1% 54% -21.6%
15% -45.8% 6% -29.1%
20% -51.2% 1% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$557
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses575 / 425
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1000 / 1000
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day308.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1000 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$29 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$29 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records