Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x97cb…c910
world · 147 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3,655 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,000 · open +$1,877
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,260
Realized−$4,000
Unrealized+$1,877
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses49 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions18
Markets (closed)128 / 147
History coverage45d
Avg bet$761
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 18 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,110
7 days+$3,440
14 days+$4,720
30 days+$1,538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $507 $2,616 +$2,109 (+416%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2,039 $1,761 −$277 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1,017 $1,152 +$135 (+13%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $403 $982 +$580 (+144%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $135 $127 −$8 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 3¢ 1¢ $120 $46 −$73 (-61%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $60 $35 −$25 (-41%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $34 −$46 (-58%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $554 $33 −$521 (-94%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+45%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-56%)
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+18%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+172%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $53 $12 −$41 (-78%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 29¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? No 9¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? No 4¢ 0¢ $443 $0 −$443 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $409 $0 −$409 (-100%)
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 28¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$693 +347%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 14 $546 −$33 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $4,605 +$553 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $30 +$89 +295%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 −$57 -37%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $2,375 +$1,951 +82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $50 +$29 +57%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,414 −$96 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$479 +2328%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$556 +109%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $235 +$16 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $70 −$60 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $186 +$59 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $600 +$18 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $67 +$285 +426%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $600 +$55 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $5,530 +$389 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $29 −$10 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $103 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $460 −$114 -25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $755 −$439 -58%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $5,793 +$66 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $68 −$68 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $619 −$238 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $140 −$20 -14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $93 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $433 +$35 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $400 +$300 +75%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $85 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5,486 −$629 -12%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $69 −$10 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 08 $103 −$12 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 08 $207 −$42 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $25 −$4 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 08 $52 −$21 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$181 +181%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$668 +668%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 07 $32 +$18 +57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $155 +$45 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $134 −$134 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $413 −$57 -14%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,168 +$588 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $280 −$65 -23%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 02 $137 +$33 +24%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 01 $48 +$1 +3%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $547 +$77 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 90% −$910
other 5% −$110
finance 3% −$191
sports 2% −$1,117
politics 1% +$163
crypto 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $476 53m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $97 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $300 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,000 59m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $180 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $124 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $324 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $893 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $197 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $300 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $300 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $513 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $340 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $119 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $300 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $64 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $160 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $264 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,231 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $79 6h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $200 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $46 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $306 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +63.7% +48.1% 46% 28% +1.5%
≤30d 99 +23.3% +11.6% 44% 27% -6.4%
≤90d 128 +6.7% -3.4% 38% 22% -13.2%
all 128 +6.7% -3.4% 38% 22% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 22% -13.2%
10% -12.7% 18% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -21.1% 13% -29.1%
20% -28.9% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,260.17 · official $7,260.17 (match) · 1786 history records