Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
97 0x97cb…bec8 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$290 (+78%) realized +$293 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +328% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +272% what you keep after slip
Net edge+272%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$226
other 30% +$515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+287.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +327.9% +287.1% 40% 40% +86.9%
≤30d 5 +327.9% +287.1% 40% 40% +86.9%
≤90d 5 +327.9% +287.1% 40% 40% +86.9%
all 5 +327.9% +287.1% 40% 40% +86.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +287.1% 40% +86.9%
10% +250.1% 40% +69.0%
15% +216.3% 40% +52.7%
20% +185.3% 40% +37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +107% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +328% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$75 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$293
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$398 +1290%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $18 +$119 +650%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 10h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 14h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.81 · official $86.81 (match) · 10 history records