Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97cf…fed5 crypto 1336 markets active 1d ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%993W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$662
7 days−$674
14 days−$751
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$208
weather 0% +$17
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -56.4% -60.5% 34% 12% -50.6%
≤30d 663 -27.1% -34.0% 59% 26% -16.7%
≤90d 1487 -15.7% -23.7% 67% 34% -14.9%
all 1487 -15.7% -23.7% 67% 34% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 34% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 18% -23.0%
15% -37.7% 10% -30.5%
20% -43.8% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses993 / 494
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1487 / 1336
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1487 Trades
no open positions (401 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records