Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x97d6…69e1 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,243 (-15%) realized −$2,968 · open −$275
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$742per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$716
7 days+$716
14 days+$716
30 days−$3,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$528
sports 36% −$3,165
crypto 4% +$381
world 3% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +544.1% +482.7% 75% 75% +35.1%
≤30d 29 +32.1% +19.5% 41% 41% -27.3%
≤90d 29 +32.1% +19.5% 41% 41% -27.3%
all 29 +32.1% +19.5% 41% 41% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 41% -27.3%
10% +8.1% 31% -34.3%
15% -2.4% 21% -40.6%
20% -11.9% 14% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$805) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$396 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2,699
Realized−$2,968
Unrealized−$275
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage29d
Avg bet$742
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $2,973 $2,698 −$275 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $805 +$161 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$224 +219%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $999 +$381 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $236 −$233 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,120 −$1,012 -90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $611 −$312 -51%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $307 −$300 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 28 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 28 $1,814 −$1,800 -99%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 26 $2,317 +$663 +29%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2,017 +$235 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $1,110 −$1,100 -99%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,317 +$562 +24%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 24 $697 +$280 +40%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $199 +$130 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $687 −$398 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $713 +$75 +10%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $931 +$300 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $404 +$153 +38%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $304 +$223 +73%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,980 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $375 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $367 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 90¢ $224 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $805 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $151 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 82¢ $254 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $172 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $218 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $304 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $330 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $795 20h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $236 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 25¢ $86 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,120 16d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? SELL No 73¢ $286 17d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 38¢ $611 17d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder $31 17d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Thunder 66¢ $303 17d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Thunder 57¢ $304 17d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Thunder 74¢ $1,814 17d
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 17d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 18d
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $581 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,698.89 · official $2,698.47 (match) · 77 history records