Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97d9…962c other 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 24% −$22
politics 8% −$9
economics 7% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage143d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $563 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $313 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $412 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $433 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $126 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $297 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $244 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $697 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $53 3h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 10h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 11h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 20h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 21h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 23h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 25h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 31h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 41h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 47h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1513 history records