Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97d9…6b46 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate87%26W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$11
tech 8% $0
other 8% +$2
politics 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.1% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 1 +4.1% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 1 +4.1% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
all 30 -0.3% -9.8% 87% 10% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 10% -10.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage527d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jun 23 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? Mar 20 $58 −$19 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? Mar 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Jan 04 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 15? Nov 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Sep 27 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $3 $0 +12%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Jun 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 26 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 26 $54 +$1 +2%
2025 January hottest on record? Mar 30 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday? Mar 30 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February? Feb 06 $1 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 06 $17 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 24 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $5 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration? Jan 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 24 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $51 61d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? SELL Yes 70¢ $28 95d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 97d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 97d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 98d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $70 170d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 98¢ $69 221d
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 15? BUY No 100¢ $68 251d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $67 381d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? BUY Down 99¢ $1 423d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $4 423d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 423d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 423d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 423d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 423d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $54 450d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 450d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.71 · official $51.71 (match) · 77 history records