Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x97dc…f686 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,299 (-1%) realized −$1,299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,223per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$68
other 39% −$1,483
sports 18% +$238
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -9.6% -18.2% 10% 4% -11.0%
all 117 +1.2% -8.4% 19% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 13% -10.4%
10% -17.2% 12% -18.9%
15% -25.2% 10% -26.8%
20% -32.5% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,452) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$25 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized−$1,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,223
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $737 $737 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,945 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $5,746 −$6 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 04 $412 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 04 $606 +$1 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $478 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $4,607 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $2,132 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $741 +$1 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,324 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $6,626 −$7 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4,356 −$4 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2,646 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4,969 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2,834 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $7,859 −$8 -0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $532 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $533 3h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $737 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,473 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,476 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,454 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,457 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,450 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,452 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,474 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,446 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,448 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,355 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,357 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,470 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,472 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,282 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,284 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,180 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $478 18d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $478 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $413 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $414 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $555 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.18 · official $737.18 (match) · 366 history records