Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x97de…383f sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$19
other 33% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.0% -13.2% 40% 20% +38.8%
≤30d 5 -4.0% -13.2% 40% 20% +38.8%
≤90d 13 +12.4% +1.7% 62% 38% +18.8%
all 13 +12.4% +1.7% 62% 38% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 38% +18.8%
10% -8.0% 31% +7.4%
15% -16.9% 23% -3.0%
20% -25.0% 15% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage58d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$6 -61%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $33 +$1 +4%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $16 +$2 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $13 +$4 +27%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$16 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 38¢ $48 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 4h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 59¢ $16 31d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $7 39d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $5 40d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 23¢ $4 41d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 57¢ $10 41d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 94¢ $15 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers SELL Thunder 80¢ $18 48d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 86¢ $20 48d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 90¢ $19 51d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $16 53d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $13 54d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 60¢ $13 54d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 62¢ $14 54d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 27¢ $10 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 27¢ $10 57d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 81¢ $26 57d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 31¢ $10 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records