Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x97e2…a6b1 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$706 (+13%) realized +$710 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$195
14 days+$286
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$679
other 4% $0
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 4 +45.2% +31.4% 75% 75% -0.9%
≤90d 11 +32.7% +20.0% 82% 55% +11.1%
all 35 +12.9% +2.1% 69% 51% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 51% +2.9%
10% -7.7% 51% -6.9%
15% -16.6% 49% -15.9%
20% -24.8% 43% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$165 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized+$710
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage219d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $385 $382 −$4 (-1%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $186 +$195 +105%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $105 +$91 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $380 −$380 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 27 $198 +$177 +90%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 19 $105 +$97 +93%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $91 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 Apr 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $105 +$101 +96%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $95 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 24 $398 +$352 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $90 $0 +0%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Mar 19 $205 +$197 +96%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 10 $105 +$101 +96%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 27 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $98 +$102 +104%
Kings vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5 Feb 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5 Jan 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 13 $291 −$291 -100%
Bucks vs. Warriors Jan 10 $201 +$99 +49%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Jan 07 $103 +$98 +96%
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) Dec 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Dec 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 23 $218 +$202 +92%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Dec 20 $385 +$355 +92%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 19 $201 +$186 +92%
Bills vs. Patriots Dec 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Pistons vs. Hawks Nov 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Stars vs. Oilers Nov 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5 Nov 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 17 $144 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 14 $54 +$48 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $391 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $186 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $105 14d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $380 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 52¢ $198 31d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 51¢ $105 42d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 42d
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 52¢ $208 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 81d
Blues vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 51¢ $105 81d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $91 81d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 53¢ $398 92d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $95 92d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 101d
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) BUY Rockets 51¢ $205 101d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 51¢ $105 105d
Pacers vs. Wizards BUY Pacers 54¢ $200 119d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $98 123d
Kings vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5 BUY Over 51¢ $104 141d
Clippers vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 50¢ $93 154d
Spurs vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 51¢ $291 159d
Bucks vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 67¢ $201 163d
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) BUY Raptors 51¢ $103 165d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? SELL Yes $15 174d
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) BUY Broncos 50¢ $102 176d
Packers vs. Bears BUY Bears 52¢ $218 180d
Rockets vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 50¢ $210 180d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY Yes $10 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes $5 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes $0 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.71 · official $472.71 (match) · 117 history records