Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97e5…d1f0 crypto 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,324 (+16%) realized +$3,388 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%218W / 178L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$581
7 days+$949
14 days+$949
30 days+$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$443
sports 37% +$1,020
other 20% +$1,220
politics 0% −$92
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +39.0% +25.8% 66% 59% +8.8%
≤30d 74 +35.8% +22.8% 68% 61% +6.9%
≤90d 196 -26.0% -33.1% 37% 34% -7.2%
all 396 +14.8% +3.8% 55% 51% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 51% +3.7%
10% -6.1% 47% -6.3%
15% -15.2% 42% -15.3%
20% -23.5% 39% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$32 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$3,388
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses218 / 178
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)396 / 398
History coverage175d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 52¢ 34¢ $190 $126 −$64 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$41 +328%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $91 −$90 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 18 $47 +$39 +83%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $51 +$63 +123%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $138 +$36 +26%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$12 +58%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$142 +139%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $169 +$91 +54%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $79 +$39 +50%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $76 +$43 +57%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $354 +$32 +9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $258 +$101 +39%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $192 +$105 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 +$48 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$24 +20%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $85 +$36 +42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 16 $47 +$38 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$147 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $2 +$47 +2298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $51 +$32 +64%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $320 +$143 +45%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$27 +27%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$94 +184%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $231 +$21 +9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $188 −$3 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $140 +$46 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 +$8 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 −$30 -26%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $34 +$27 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 40¢ $41 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 88¢ $53 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 49¢ $51 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 61¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? SELL Scotland 100¢ $85 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? BUY Scotland 54¢ $46 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? BUY Scotland 50¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $44 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 45¢ $20 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 54¢ $69 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 23¢ $31 4h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $82 4h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 61¢ $51 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 20¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No $5 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $133 17h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $32 17h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 62¢ $20 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 21h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $61 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.96 · official $136.95 · 1045 history records