Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

97 0x97e6…c62b sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$106 (+23%) realized +$75 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%6W / 18L

Drawdown61%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day16.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+15.1%	+4.2%	25%	25%	+20.0%
≤30d	24	+15.1%	+4.2%	25%	25%	+20.0%
≤90d	24	+15.1%	+4.2%	25%	25%	+20.0%
all	24	+15.1%	+4.2%	25%	25%	+20.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	25%	+20.0%
10%	-5.8%	25%	+8.5%
15%	-14.9%	25%	-2.0%
20%	-23.2%	25%	-11.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +112% → late -82% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$10 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized+$75

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses6 / 18

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions6

Markets (closed)24 / 30

History coverage3d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day16.4

Drawdown61%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	50¢	100¢	$30	$60	+$30 (+100%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Yes	26¢	31¢	$20	$24	+$4 (+19%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Yes	23¢	22¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Yes	22¢	20¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-7%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	Over	14¢	13¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5	Over	6¢	6¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$21	−$17	-80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 17	$22	−$12	-55%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-96%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$10	−$3	-25%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 17	$28	−$4	-15%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?	Jun 17	$10	−$4	-40%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	+$59	+565%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-96%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$8	-80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$15	+$29	+190%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$10	+$80	+774%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$51	+$48	+94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$21	+$27	+129%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$12	+$17	+135%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan?	Jun 14	$12	−$8	-64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$31	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	22¢	$21	1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	26¢	$21	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	SELL Over	4¢	$3	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	SELL Yes	10¢	$9	2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	BUY Over	12¢	$21	10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	21¢	$21	10h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	23¢	$21	10h
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	14¢	$10	10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	6¢	$10	10h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway?	SELL Yes	7¢	$8	20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	SELL Yes	63¢	$39	20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	SELL Yes	50¢	$30	21h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	22h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	5¢	$2	23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$33	23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	38¢	$12	23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	20¢	$5	24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	24¢	$10	24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	34h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	34h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	34h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	34h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	SELL Yes	72¢	$32	41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	SELL Yes	26¢	$15	42h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.94 · official $140.94 (match) · 63 history records