Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x97ea…3363 sports 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64,422 (+16%) realized +$54,380 · open −$3,078
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate71%268W / 109L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$935per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Fees−$1,535est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$27,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,514
7 days−$233
14 days+$12,613
30 days+$29,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$32,680
sports 33% +$11,425
other 15% −$2,973
finance 7% +$10,404
politics 6% −$2,953
tech 3% +$55
crypto 1% +$2,665
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -14.2% -22.3% 54% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 200 +1.3% -8.4% 70% 46% +0.6%
≤90d 377 +19.7% +8.3% 71% 51% +3.5%
all 377 +19.7% +8.3% 71% 51% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 51% +3.5%
10% -2.1% 37% -6.4%
15% ← realistic here -11.5% 25% -15.5%
20% -20.2% 18% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,181) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$396 vs −$479 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$27,136
Realized+$54,380
Unrealized−$3,078
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses268 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,535
Open positions71
Markets (closed)377 / 440
History coverage56d
Avg bet$935
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $1,882 $2,280 +$398 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ 14¢ $2,677 $1,960 −$716 (-27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 83¢ 90¢ $1,636 $1,778 +$142 (+9%)
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,673 $1,702 +$28 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $1,252 $1,653 +$401 (+32%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $1,343 $1,375 +$31 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 73¢ 55¢ $1,712 $1,283 −$429 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 84¢ 87¢ $1,162 $1,200 +$38 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 86¢ 97¢ $1,061 $1,195 +$134 (+13%)
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $1,188 $1,136 −$52 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,087 $1,072 −$14 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 89¢ 95¢ $915 $971 +$56 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $683 $949 +$266 (+39%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $853 $860 +$6 (+1%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 55¢ 80¢ $413 $599 +$186 (+45%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $536 $564 +$28 (+5%)
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $500 $525 +$25 (+5%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 83¢ 53¢ $665 $426 −$239 (-36%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 70¢ 63¢ $467 $420 −$47 (-10%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 82¢ 42¢ $779 $394 −$385 (-49%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 23¢ 16¢ $542 $377 −$164 (-30%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 11¢ 25¢ $166 $375 +$208 (+125%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $229 $239 +$10 (+4%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 56¢ $258 $238 −$20 (-8%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $204 $228 +$24 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $713 +$166 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $457 +$231 +50%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $800 −$579 -72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $11,700 +$2,657 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,953 −$57 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,850 +$451 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $9,582 +$2,486 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $3,571 +$1,913 +54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $670 −$670 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $900 −$900 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,533 −$1,533 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $814 +$420 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,533 +$689 +45%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,884 +$338 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,871 +$1,462 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,731 +$1,062 +61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $802 +$84 +10%
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $560 −$112 -20%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $153 +$27 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,794 −$1,338 -75%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $13,155 +$1,103 +8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1,209 +$209 +17%
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? Jun 12 $410 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,603 +$66 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,080 +$920 +85%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,733 +$489 +28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $810 −$810 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,700 +$300 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,143 +$518 +45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $348 −$6 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $365 −$37 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $2,589 −$964 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $627 −$12 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2,403 +$620 +26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,591 −$1,226 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $976 −$976 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,426 −$1,426 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $964 −$964 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,444 −$1,444 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $779 −$779 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,511 −$26 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3,166 −$333 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $243 +$154 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $6,311 +$962 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $777 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1,896 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $221 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $13 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $21 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $187 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $21 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $43 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $187 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $241 2h
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY No 57¢ $105 2h
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 30¢ $31 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 66¢ $34 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 66¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 66¢ $421 2h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY No 79¢ $55 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 19¢ $47 2h
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? BUY No 38¢ $39 2h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 53¢ $84 2h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY No 77¢ $26 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1,170 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $189 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 88¢ $216 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 39¢ $14 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY No 44¢ $54 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $69 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,136.16 · official $27,160.89 (match) · 3500 history records