Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97f1…a523 weather 1185 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$553 (-15%) realized −$555 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%573W / 540L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day132.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$195
14 days−$272
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 557 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 44% -20.4%
≤30d 1113 -6.9% -15.7% 51% 45% -16.0%
≤90d 1113 -6.9% -15.7% 51% 45% -16.0%
all 1113 -6.9% -15.7% 51% 45% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 45% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 34% -24.1%
15% -31.2% 17% -31.4%
20% -37.9% 9% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses573 / 540
Open positions126
Markets (closed)1113 / 1185
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day132.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 126 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 72¢ $3 $22 +$18 (+540%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 62¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 70¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? No 73¢ 76¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+214%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 76¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 71¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 50¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 66¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? No 72¢ 66¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? No 69¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 72¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 65¢ 61¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? No 71¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 49¢ 76¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 79¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? No 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? No 72¢ 65¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 67¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? No 85¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 72¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 23? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 22? Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 24? Jun 16 $0 $0 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29? Jun 16 $0 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 14? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 22? Jun 16 $0 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 23? Jun 16 $0 $0 -117%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28? Jun 16 $0 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 28? Jun 16 $0 $0 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 16 $0 $0 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 29? Jun 16 $0 $0 -218%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 24? Jun 16 $0 $0 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 10? Jun 16 $0 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 28? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +761%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 29? Jun 16 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 24? Jun 16 $0 $0 +346%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 16 $0 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 22? Jun 16 $0 $0 -320%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28? Jun 16 $0 $0 -482%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 16 $0 $0 +362%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 16 $0 +$4 +6452%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 24? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -345%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12? Jun 16 $0 $0 -751%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1261%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22? Jun 16 $0 $0 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -194%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12? Jun 16 $0 $0 -147%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 29? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -492%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29? Jun 16 $0 $0 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 19? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -208%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 11? Jun 16 $0 $0 -162%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -139%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -111%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 16 $0 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.75 · official $388.93 · 3500 history records