Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x97f3…0eba
other · 306 markets active 2d ago
0.5score
−$57,651 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$60,681 · open +$3,030
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35,252
Realized−$60,681
Unrealized+$3,030
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses115 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions24
Markets (closed)282 / 306
History coverage331d
Avg bet$1,360
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 24 History 282 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,211
14 days+$1,093
30 days+$1,535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $15,000 $18,983 +$3,983 (+27%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 52¢ 70¢ $2,550 $3,472 +$922 (+36%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 43¢ 54¢ $2,500 $3,172 +$672 (+27%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $1,836 $2,150 +$314 (+17%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No 34¢ 78¢ $900 $2,060 +$1,160 (+129%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $1,500 $1,269 −$231 (-15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $2,855 $994 −$1,862 (-65%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 51¢ 90¢ $400 $703 +$303 (+76%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $1,500 $465 −$1,035 (-69%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 80¢ 44¢ $750 $408 −$342 (-46%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $200 $333 +$133 (+67%)
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $350 $257 −$93 (-26%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $350 $195 −$155 (-44%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 50¢ 92¢ $100 $185 +$85 (+85%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $200 $118 −$82 (-41%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 16¢ $300 $102 −$198 (-66%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $250 $69 −$181 (-72%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 12¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+37%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $150 $65 −$85 (-56%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 69¢ 69¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 2¢ $300 $19 −$281 (-94%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $2,000 +$1,211 +60%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $206 −$118 -57%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 29 $165 −$165 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 28 $200 +$59 +29%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $1,515 +$435 +29%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $257 +$349 +136%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 13 $200 −$107 -54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 08 $2,500 −$1,632 -65%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? May 04 $6,512 −$6,512 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 02 $250 −$250 -100%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? May 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? May 02 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30? May 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 02 $25,100 −$25,100 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 27 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 19 $17,845 −$17,845 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 15 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Apr 08 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? Apr 08 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 07 $200 −$199 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 07 $200 −$198 -99%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $25,030 +$14,383 +58%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Apr 07 $50 −$21 -41%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 05 $4,322 −$3,620 -84%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? Apr 03 $200 −$200 -100%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 03 $250 −$250 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Apr 02 $1,000 −$673 -67%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $300 −$300 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Apr 01 $24,700 −$24,700 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $30,000 +$13,543 +45%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $800 +$521 +65%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $1,400 +$1,176 +84%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 30 $9,000 +$2,956 +33%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 25 $250 +$147 +59%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $521 +$59 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $1,000 +$382 +38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $100 +$127 +127%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 16 $950 −$950 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 16 $5,000 +$2,154 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 13 $500 +$37 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 24% +$16,496
other 20% +$2,872
culture 16% +$12,388
finance 16% −$51,929
politics 9% −$27,549
tech 8% +$12,515
sports 3% −$9,985
economics 2% −$8,517
crypto 1% −$3,943
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,539 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 22¢ $773 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $3,211 2d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 14¢ $88 10d
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $94 15d
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $165 15d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 93¢ $259 15d
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? BUY No 7¢ $142 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 50¢ $510 17d
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,032 17d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 31¢ $206 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,015 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 30¢ $206 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 19¢ $155 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,950 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 44¢ $256 18d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 22d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 22d
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? BUY Anthropic 69¢ $51 22d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $408 24d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $750 25d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $750 29d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $257 30d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $93 30d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $52 30d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $5,061 31d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $880 35d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $868 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10,119 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +60.5% +45.2% 100% 100% +45.2%
≤30d 8 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% +20.8%
≤90d 49 -50.0% -54.8% 29% 29% -45.2%
all 282 -26.8% -33.8% 41% 40% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 40% -23.8%
10% -40.1% 36% -31.1%
15% -45.9% 26% -37.8%
20% -51.2% 17% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,251.80 · official $35,251.81 (match) · 870 history records