Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97f4…d3e6 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,285 (-14%) realized −$1,137 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%28W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$323
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$1,002
crypto 7% −$129
sports 5% −$25
world 3% −$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 78% 78% +20.8%
≤30d 11 -2.7% -12.0% 64% 64% -15.9%
≤90d 11 -2.7% -12.0% 64% 64% -15.9%
all 45 -20.0% -27.6% 62% 38% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -22.9%
10% -34.5% 29% -30.3%
15% -40.8% 24% -37.0%
20% -46.6% 18% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$155 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$1,137
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses28 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage232d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $360 $357 −$3 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$51 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $197 +$112 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $229 −$226 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$196 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET Feb 05 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 05 $107 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 05 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 04 $119 +$6 +5%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $115 +$5 +4%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $436 +$13 +3%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $1,146 +$11 +1%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $1,000 +$148 +15%
Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $169 +$30 +18%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $137 +$32 +23%
Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $95 +$12 +12%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Nov 14 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $319 −$319 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $189 +$131 +69%
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 2.5 Nov 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $227 −$227 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? Nov 03 $248 +$206 +83%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $229 +$15 +7%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bologna win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $224 +$105 +47%
Will Lecce win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $213 +$11 +5%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $151 +$62 +41%
Avalanche vs. Sharks Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $133 +$68 +51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $104 +$28 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $363 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $146 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $197 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $229 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $100 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 136d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $121 136d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $112 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $107 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $20 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $125 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $119 137d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 137d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-04? BUY Yes 96¢ $115 137d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? BUY Yes 64¢ $208 202d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $449 203d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 97¢ $436 203d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,157 206d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,146 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.48 · official $357.53 (match) · 80 history records