Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97f9…3588 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 684d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$825 (+2%) realized +$825 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%69W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$554per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,145
7 days+$1,754
14 days+$993
30 days+$1,100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$527
other 28% +$517
sports 19% +$1,331
world 4% +$111
politics 1% −$70
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.9% +1.3% 95% 42% -1.1%
≤30d 40 -25.4% -32.5% 62% 22% -5.8%
≤90d 40 -25.4% -32.5% 62% 22% -5.8%
all 89 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 30% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 30% -7.0%
10% -19.9% 17% -15.9%
15% -27.7% 12% -24.0%
20% -34.8% 9% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$798) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$91 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$825
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses69 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage684d
Avg bet$554
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $387 +$41 +11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,042 +$315 +15%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,822 +$215 +12%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,505 +$179 +5%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2,130 +$146 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,201 +$36 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $801 +$41 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $801 +$43 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $502 +$33 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $502 +$71 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,251 +$25 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $501 +$54 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $803 +$119 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$228 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,929 +$30 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$22 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $201 +$20 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,701 +$15 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,610 +$119 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45-50 million views on day 1? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-20? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-20? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Monday? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 08 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? Jun 08 $745 −$745 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $303 +$107 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $701 +$45 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $3,569 +$133 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 06 $3,549 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 05 $534 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $515 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 03 $563 −$563 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 03 $551 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 03 $795 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 03 $1,034 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 03 $1,023 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $387 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $997 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $541 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $503 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $543 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $317 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1,505 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,505 22h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,086 22h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,201 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,046 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $81 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $76 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,003 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $75 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $801 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $502 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,251 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $273 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records