Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97f9…eb81 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+3%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$5
other 33% +$29
politics 18% −$1
sports 7% +$14
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 11 +5.8% -4.2% 18% 9% -9.2%
all 43 +3.8% -6.1% 26% 7% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 7% -6.3%
10% -15.1% 7% -15.3%
15% -23.3% 5% -23.5%
20% -30.8% 5% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.65 per $1 lost it wins $6.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $39 +$29 +76%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $30 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $25 +$8 +30%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 26 $24 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $35 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $42 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $42 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $17 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.70 · official $28.77 (match) · 134 history records