Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97fb…44bc crypto 1118 markets active 4d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-3%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%554W / 564L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 103 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 50% -8.6%
≤90d 1118 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 47% -14.7%
all 1118 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 47% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 47% -14.7%
10% -21.9% 46% -22.9%
15% -29.4% 44% -30.3%
20% -36.4% 39% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses554 / 564
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1118 / 1118
History coverage78d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1118 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$11 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2500 history records