Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97fb…3201 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 27% -15.3%
≤30d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 27% -15.3%
≤90d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 27% -15.3%
all 11 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 27% -15.3%
10% -31.0% 18% -23.4%
15% -37.7% 9% -30.8%
20% -43.8% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $171 −$7 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records