Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97ff…d970 sports 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,302 (-8%) realized −$3,765 · open +$463
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%246W / 122L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$84
14 days−$934
30 days−$3,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$1,681
finance 36% −$807
other 17% −$1,293
politics 3% −$183
tech 1% +$96
world 1% −$56
crypto 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +292.8% +255.4% 100% 100% +255.4%
≤30d 124 -11.8% -20.2% 64% 48% -23.7%
≤90d 368 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 58% -19.8%
all 368 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 58% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 58% -19.8%
10% -20.5% 40% -27.5%
15% -28.1% 27% -34.5%
20% -35.2% 18% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$90 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4,327
Realized−$3,765
Unrealized+$463
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses246 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions19
Markets (closed)368 / 388
History coverage66d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 7¢ 29¢ $199 $856 +$657 (+329%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $178 $450 +$272 (+152%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $550 $402 −$148 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $354 $385 +$31 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $500 $381 −$119 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $262 $310 +$48 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $200 $282 +$82 (+41%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $300 $211 −$89 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $300 $199 −$101 (-34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $142 $179 +$37 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $212 $174 −$38 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $300 $147 −$153 (-51%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $142 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $132 $128 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 75¢ $10 $54 +$44 (+436%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 34¢ 36¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $29 +$84 +293%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 17 $104 +$98 +95%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $29 +$71 +250%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $8 +$9 +109%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $202 +$66 +33%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $146 −$77 -53%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $368 −$368 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $29 +$28 +97%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Anthropic" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All- Jun 13 $38 +$10 +27%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $52 +$12 +22%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $53 +$17 +32%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $214 +$24 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $127 +$30 +24%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $1,067 +$84 +8%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $199 −$199 -100%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $1,254 −$1,254 -100%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $280 +$39 +14%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $722 +$100 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $301 +$15 +5%
Will JM Smucker (SJM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $100 +$25 +25%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $288 +$195 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $43 +$40 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $487 −$487 -100%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $119 +$19 +16%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $102 +$34 +33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $358 +$22 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $87 −$87 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 26¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 1h
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 91¢ $133 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $298 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $48 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $222 30h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge BUY 25¢ $29 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 7d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $360 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $198 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 8d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 8d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY 26¢ $58 8d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $29 9d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 9d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $8 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 9d
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,326.98 · official $4,327.90 (match) · 1105 history records