Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:20:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97ff…82e7 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$275 (+19%) realized +$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%29W / 40L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$227
14 days+$260
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$69
sports 34% +$200
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +42.0% +28.5% 55% 55% +22.1%
≤30d 69 +13.6% +2.7% 42% 42% +6.7%
≤90d 69 +13.6% +2.7% 42% 42% +6.7%
all 69 +13.6% +2.7% 42% 42% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 42% +6.7%
10% -7.1% 33% -3.5%
15% -16.1% 29% -12.9%
20% -24.3% 16% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses29 / 40
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)69 / 73
History coverage13d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 +$12 +19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$16 -32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$12 +39%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$13 +650%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 $0 -9%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $46 +$21 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 +$43 +250%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$45 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$15 -76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $131 +$20 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$49 +54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $41 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 34h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.03 · official $25.03 (match) · 170 history records