Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9800…9a33 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$49 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$36
crypto 19% −$16
politics 18% −$29
finance 8% $0
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.2% -7.6% 57% 57% +4.1%
≤30d 7 +2.2% -7.6% 57% 57% +4.1%
≤90d 21 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 43% -17.4%
all 21 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 43% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 43% -17.4%
10% -22.4% 19% -25.3%
15% -29.9% 5% -32.5%
20% -36.7% 5% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage105d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 64¢ 66¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 100¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 69¢ 100¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+44%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $21 $27 +$7 (+32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Jun 18 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Jun 17 $21 +$7 +35%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Jun 17 $38 +$13 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13? Jun 17 $44 +$11 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $52 −$24 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $21 +$2 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $21 +$3 +13%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 13 $49 −$21 -42%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $49 −$16 -32%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 12 $21 −$5 -26%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 12 $21 −$5 -26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 31 $6 +$1 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 31 $7 +$1 +16%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $36 −$10 -26%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $1 $0 -3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 27 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $65 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? SELL Yes $28 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? BUY Yes $0 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? BUY Yes $6 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $23 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? BUY Yes $1 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? BUY Yes $0 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? BUY Yes $0 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? BUY Yes $45 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13? BUY No 78¢ $44 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $23 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio SELL Yes $28 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $29 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $3 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $1 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $1 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $5 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $5 66d
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 10¢ $5 66d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament SELL Yes $22 66d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament SELL Yes $1 66d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament SELL Yes $11 66d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament BUY Yes $49 66d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $21 66d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $21 67d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $20 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 53¢ $15 67d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? SELL Yes $15 67d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $21 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.64 · official $203.64 (match) · 64 history records