Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9803…0242 sports 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,064 (-6%) realized −$1,063 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%198W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$448
7 days+$425
14 days+$239
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,427
other 5% −$61
crypto 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 68% +14.0%
≤30d 181 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 54% -13.4%
≤90d 359 -11.1% -19.5% 55% 53% -17.3%
all 359 -11.1% -19.5% 55% 53% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 53% -17.3%
10% -27.2% 47% -25.2%
15% -34.3% 36% -32.5%
20% -40.7% 23% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$43 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$1,063
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses198 / 161
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions1
Markets (closed)359 / 361
History coverage65d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$29 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $110 +$19 +17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$91 +89%
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr Jun 27 $121 +$33 +28%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St Jun 27 $100 +$18 +18%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 27 $101 +$45 +45%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$69 +226%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ Jun 26 $41 +$30 +73%
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America Jun 26 $100 +$16 +16%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North Jun 26 $40 +$21 +52%
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Jun 26 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $110 +$13 +12%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $82 +$28 +34%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame Jun 25 $68 +$14 +21%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $53 +$25 +47%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta Jun 23 $40 +$13 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $47 −$47 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $41 +$54 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Overwatch: The Kafe vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Gro Jun 21 $19 −$19 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage Jun 21 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $9 +$6 +64%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$10 +145%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Overwatch: LuneX Gaming vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Jun 20 $14 +$8 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $11 +$7 +64%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $15 +$11 +71%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $18 +$8 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$17 +97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 18 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $17 +$6 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 +$2 +17%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $101 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $9 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $20 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 4h
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr SELL Twisted Minds 100¢ $154 5h
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr BUY Twisted Minds 78¢ $121 7h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St SELL FaZe Vegas 100¢ $118 7h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St BUY FaZe Vegas 85¢ $100 7h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Paris Gentle Mates 100¢ $146 7h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 68¢ $101 9h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY FaZe Vegas 26¢ $41 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $110 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 24h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 26h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $70 27h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $41 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America SELL Spacestation Gaming 100¢ $116 29h
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America BUY Spacestation Gaming 86¢ $100 29h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North SELL DarkZero Esports 100¢ $61 29h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North BUY DarkZero Esports 65¢ $40 31h
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of SELL Miami Heretics 100¢ $133 32h
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of BUY Miami Heretics 75¢ $101 33h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Kiwoom DRX 100¢ $123 38h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 89¢ $110 38h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 100¢ $111 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.17 · official $99.17 (match) · 587 history records