Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9804…42e3 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-7%) realized −$106 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$49
world 34% +$8
crypto 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 3 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤90d 3 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -32.7%
all 3 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 33% -32.7%
10% -62.9% 33% -39.1%
15% -66.5% 33% -45.0%
20% -69.8% 0% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$62 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,185
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 41¢ 38¢ $380 $360 −$20 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $410 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $150 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $230 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $150 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 38¢ $28 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,184.89 · official $1,184.89 (match) · 11 history records