Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9805…2917 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days−$17
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 0% -1.7%
≤30d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 20% -12.3%
≤90d 22 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 32% -9.8%
all 22 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 32% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 32% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 9% -18.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage56d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 35h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $14 35h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 15d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 20d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $25 20d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 23d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $20 24d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 24d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 27d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $13 31d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $8 31d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 35d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 38d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 38d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 39d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 41d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 41d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 42d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records