Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x980e…bd91 other 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$5
politics 14% −$4
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$14
culture 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.9% -20.3% 17% 17% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -3.8% -13.0% 16% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +2.5% -7.3% 13% 10% -9.5%
all 112 +2.5% -7.3% 13% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 10% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 10% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage89d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $466 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $349 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $514 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $715 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $371 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $489 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $249 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $419 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $482 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $391 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $442 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $436 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $251 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $95 23m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 25h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 31h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $102 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $45 20d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $45 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.52 · official $196.52 (match) · 325 history records