Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x9814…29ed sports 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$117 (+3%) realized +$128 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%233W / 161L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$8
14 days+$36
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$120
other 24% −$21
world 1% −$12
politics 1% $0
finance 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 55% -7.8%
≤30d 365 +11.3% +0.7% 58% 56% -6.8%
≤90d 371 +12.8% +2.1% 59% 57% -4.7%
all 394 +12.6% +1.9% 59% 54% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 54% -7.5%
10% -7.9% 53% -16.3%
15% -16.8% 42% -24.4%
20% -24.9% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses233 / 161
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions15
Markets (closed)394 / 409
History coverage541d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 73¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+37%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 36¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 24¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Up 78¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs TDK 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $1 +$4 +365%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $5 +$2 +55%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $6 +$8 +133%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +39%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 −$5 -72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 +$3 +56%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$8 +510%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 +$3 +48%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +27%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $6 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$1 -23%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Jun 17 $3 +$2 +51%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $3 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$4 -41%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $6 +$4 +61%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $7 +$5 +81%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$6 -39%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $7 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 20¢ $1 33m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 47¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 78¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 38¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 46¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $3 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 2¢ $1 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 78¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 21¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 69¢ $3 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 10h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 66¢ $1 10h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 63¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 93¢ $3 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 12h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 56¢ $3 12h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) BUY Washington Mystics 44¢ $2 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 77¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.46 · official $75.97 (match) · 1119 history records