Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9817…21b6 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$4
other 13% +$2
crypto 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.0% 41% 0% -10.2%
all 33 +4.8% -5.2% 52% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -14.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -22.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage460d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $34 −$4 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $92 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $15 $0 +3%
Will 'Abyss' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 04 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $2 +$2 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $26 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $30 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $34 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $30 33d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $32 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records