Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9819…cd7f weather 69 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$92
weather 34% −$52
sports 9% $0
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -11.4% -19.8% 52% 46% -1.2%
≤30d 64 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 45% -1.3%
≤90d 64 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 45% -1.3%
all 64 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 45% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 45% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 38% -10.7%
15% -34.7% 31% -19.4%
20% -41.1% 22% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 69
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$12 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$23 +179%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$9 +148%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records