Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9819…fe16 weather 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$459 (-6%) realized −$461 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate43%124W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$546
7 days−$498
14 days−$477
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$559
politics 1% −$7
other 1% +$9
sports 1% −$9
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% −$10
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -25.0% -32.1% 30% 15% -23.5%
≤30d 116 -23.6% -30.9% 39% 18% -14.6%
≤90d 184 -23.0% -30.3% 40% 17% -14.6%
all 286 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 19% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 19% -15.3%
10% -35.5% 13% -23.4%
15% -41.8% 8% -30.8%
20% -47.5% 5% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$461
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses124 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)286 / 289
History coverage238d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 54¢ 70¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $242 −$228 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $176 −$134 -76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $334 −$57 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $75 −$73 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $35 −$32 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $8 +$47 +567%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $28 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $41 +$41 +100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $29 −$25 -85%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $236 +$84 +36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $108 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $61 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $23 −$17 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $367 +$72 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $66 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $72 −$58 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $117 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $45 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $138 −$9 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $62 −$35 -56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $21 −$18 -88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $96 −$17 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $81 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $36 +$22 +61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $78 +$37 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $17 −$10 -58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $61 −$21 -35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $127 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $50 −$27 -54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 07 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $244 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $34 −$9 -27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $11 −$10 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $107 +$26 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $3 39m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 69¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 38¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 41¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 84¢ $42 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $43 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 62¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 65¢ $92 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 89¢ $70 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 89¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 71¢ $31 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $16 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 67¢ $31 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.58 · official $24.24 · 1153 history records