Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9819…4951 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$562 (+2%) realized +$566 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 84L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$285
sports 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -46.3% -51.5% 26% 26% -32.1%
≤30d 31 -46.3% -51.5% 26% 26% -32.1%
≤90d 115 -19.4% -27.1% 27% 23% -9.2%
all 115 -19.4% -27.1% 27% 23% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 23% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 22% -17.9%
15% -40.4% 20% -25.8%
20% -46.2% 19% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$311 vs −$112 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$566
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$258
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 52¢ 48¢ $63 $59 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $86 +$162 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $224 +$164 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10PM ET Jun 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2PM ET Jun 27 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $482 −$482 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $195 +$314 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $146 +$171 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $212 +$120 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $159 +$95 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 29 $898 −$133 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 29 $1,716 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 29 $810 +$929 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 29 $972 +$93 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 29 $294 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 29 $1,250 −$144 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 29 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 29 $706 +$568 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 29 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 29 $391 −$391 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 29 $780 −$194 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 29 $1,051 −$92 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 29 $865 +$90 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 29 $285 +$277 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 29 $163 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 29 $129 −$54 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 29 $124 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 29 $144 +$147 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.56 · official $58.56 (match) · 3500 history records