Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981a…048c crypto 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%300W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$30
14 days+$51
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$12
sports 33% −$2
other 7% −$10
weather 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 68 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 243 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 1% -9.6%
all 320 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses300 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)320 / 321
History coverage99d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Spain? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? Jun 26 $134 +$1 +1%
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Jun 26 $133 +$1 +1%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 26 $131 +$1 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 25 $130 +$2 +2%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 25 $127 +$2 +2%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 25 $127 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $127 $0 +0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 24 $126 $0 +0%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 24 $126 $0 +0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $126 $0 +0%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 23 $125 +$1 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $124 +$1 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 23 $121 +$3 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $119 +$3 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $118 $0 +0%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $117 +$1 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $117 +$1 +0%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $114 +$3 +2%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $113 +$1 +1%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 21 $110 +$3 +2%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 21 $109 +$1 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 20 $108 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $108 +$1 +0%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $106 +$2 +2%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $105 +$1 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $105 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $104 +$1 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $104 $0 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $104 $0 +0%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
Spread: Panama (-3.5) Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $97 +$1 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Saleh Al Shehri: 3+ goals Jun 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $94 +$2 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $93 +$1 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $89 +$2 +2%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $88 +$1 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $86 +$1 +1%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $84 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $135 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? BUY No 99¢ $134 6h
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) BUY United States 99¢ $133 23h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 99¢ $131 26h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $130 29h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Mexico 98¢ $127 2d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $127 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $127 2d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $126 2d
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Croatia 100¢ $126 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $126 3d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $125 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $124 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 98¢ $121 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $119 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $118 4d
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY Egypt 99¢ $117 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $117 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 98¢ $114 5d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $113 5d
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $110 5d
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 99¢ $109 6d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $108 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $108 6d
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 98¢ $106 6d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $105 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $105 7d
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY United States 100¢ $104 7d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Mexico 100¢ $104 8d
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $104 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.43 · official $135.43 (match) · 702 history records