Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981b…1a89 other 67 markets active 3d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-10%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%16W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$14
sports 22% −$10
crypto 23% −$14
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 18% -45.6%
≤30d 24 -47.0% -52.0% 25% 17% -51.0%
≤90d 67 -22.3% -29.7% 24% 21% -19.0%
all 67 -22.3% -29.7% 24% 21% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 21% -19.0%
10% -36.4% 21% -26.7%
15% -42.5% 21% -33.8%
20% -48.2% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage62d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +210%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
CD Palestino leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +116%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 +$1 +128%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $2 +$6 +299%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $1 +$4 +414%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$7 +365%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? May 04 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $0 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
CD Palestino leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
CD Palestino leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 38¢ $0 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 7d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 8d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 9d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records