Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981b…ffec crypto 522 markets active 0h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,725 (-8%) realized −$1,725 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%332W / 189L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$746
tech 16% −$220
politics 12% −$827
sports 5% +$28
other 4% +$22
world 1% −$13
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 45% -5.3%
≤30d 67 -4.1% -13.2% 66% 66% -7.6%
≤90d 345 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 64% -17.0%
all 521 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 56% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 56% -16.5%
10% -18.7% 50% -24.5%
15% -26.6% 25% -31.8%
20% -33.8% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,725
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses332 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)521 / 522
History coverage417d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$4 -27%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 $0 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$2 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 0m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 0m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 21m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 21m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 33m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 39m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 41m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 55m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 54¢ $8 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 42¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $10 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.68 · official $4.68 (match) · 1802 history records